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Higher-than-expected budget surplus projections from the Consensus Forecasting Group & Economic Development Update

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December 15, 2022


On December 14, 2022, the state’s Consensus Forecasting Group (CFG), a group of financial experts, revised the state General Fund revenue estimates upward by $1.4 billion in the current fiscal year and by $1.3 billion in fiscal year 2024. The estimates yield total revenues of $15.2 billion this fiscal year and $15.5 billion next fiscal year. These are expected to be the four largest budget surpluses in the commonwealth’s history and will bring the state’s rainy day fund up to over $3 billion at the end of fiscal year 2023 and nearly $4 billion at the end of fiscal year 2024. These figures also represent growth rates of 3.4% for the 2023 fiscal year and 1.7% for fiscal year 2024.

Executive Cabinet Secretary and State Budget Director John Hicks said that these positive numbers result from economic improvement of households and businesses, as well as recentstrong revenue trends, and increased forecasts in individual income taxes, sales taxes and business taxes. 

“One area of the economic assumptions highlighted in the CFG’s deliberations is that manufacturing employment in Kentucky will do better than the Unites States as a whole. And that data does not incorporate the manufacturing announcements like the Ford/BlueOval SK battery plants,” Secretary Hicks said.

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